Roar of Steven

servobob: jrspaniel: nafansaurus: The Potoo - Either the...

Wed, 15 May 2013 08:10:56 -0400

jrspaniel:

nafansaurus:

The Potoo - Either the most unphotogenic or the most ridiculous looking bird in the world.

so it turns out I’m a bird and nobody told me

this bird is the BEST BIRD

Dark Souls 2 enemy preview.

Kill it! KILL IT WITH FIRE!

Outliers-Supplement

Sun, 12 May 2013 17:35:00 -0400

Issue five of #24MAG is now online and you can read it here. The theme of this issue is data, and so I wrote a short story about how people tend to focus on the outliers in their data, rather than focus on the general trend; specifically how one guy keeps making the same mistakes in his relationships because, this one time, it worked.

I’m really proud of the piece, not least because it’s outside of my general oeuvre, in that it’s about relationships and hard emotional breakups and not about, say, Batman. Thanks to some great editing from Rose Fox and Sara Eileen Hames, it’s a story about a three dimensional person and his human mistakes, and not a polemic about logical fallacies, and is all the stronger for it.

That said, I still want to write that polemic, and I have my own blog and so here goes.

The thing about data is that it’s boring. At least it should be. If you’re doing it right, then the statistics gathered should match the real world, and if the results are surprising, then either there’s something wrong with your study (most likely) and there’s something wrong with your general understanding of the world (unlikely but actually really exciting).

The number one cause of death in America is heart disease. We should be terrified of heart disease, much more so than we are of terrorism, or plane crashes, or bird flu. But we’re not. Not that there aren’t doctors and organizations committed to fighting heart disease and making us healthier, but someone dying of a heart attack isn’t front page news. It’s common. It’s expected.

Instead we focus on the outliers, because that’s where the stories are. Something, anything, happening “against all odds” is interesting. And someone succeeding “against all odds” is heroic. Romantic.

So we tell stories about the “unlikely hero.” The “star-crossed lovers.” The “one in a million chances.” Even when we tell stories about our lives, we don’t start, “the same thing happened today that happened for the last hundred days.” We start, “The craziest thing happened at work today!”

In this way, all fiction is speculative fiction. Even if it has nary a ray gun or a vampire, the story is about the unlikely thing happening. If most cross-cultural relationships fail, this about the one that works. If most murdered women are killed by their husbands, this is about the time that the husband was framed.

The problem is when people so focus on the the outlier they cannot see the trend.

Some of this is willful self-delusion, because the outlier is the desired result. Having proof that at least one time the world worked exactly they way they wanted it to, they ignore the overwhelming amount of times it does not (i.e. those who believe abstinence-only education reduces teen pregnancy, despite every study showing that it has exactly the opposite result).

There are those so inured by fiction to expect the unexpected that they expect the unexpected in real life too. I’ve heard it called the Perry Mason effect, where jurors expect every case to have some kind of twist. Every cop show they’ve ever seen shows that the first suspect is never the actual culprit, so no matter how slam-dunk the case, prosecutors find jury trials risky because there’s always the chance that one of the jurors thinks this is 12 Angry Men and they’re Henry Fonda.

It’s the difference between a good gambler and a bad one. A good gambler believes in probability, a bad one believes in luck. The good gambler bets on the most likely outcome, while the bad gambler bets on the outcome that would be best for him, or most exciting for him, or the one he believes an inexplicable, supernatural force will cause, i.e. he’s feeling “lucky”.

It’s fun to read about the outliers, because they are good stories, but we cannot lead out lives guided by them. We can want our lives to be more exciting than they are, but we cannot expect them to be. By definition, we cannot expect the unexpected to happen, nor should we. Believing in the improbable is a recipe for disaster. Falling in love with an outlier will only break your heart.

studiosaraeileen: Summer is coming. You know nothing of...

Tue, 09 Apr 2013 16:07:50 -0400

studiosaraeileen:

Summer is coming.

You know nothing of fashion, Jon Snow

Photo

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 00:50:17 -0400

studiosaraeileen: I went to work and said, “Sara, today you...

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 09:36:51 -0400

studiosaraeileen:

I went to work and said, “Sara, today you don’t draw people.”

This is what happened.

Mucha X Spielberg

How Are You I'm Fine Thanks: I really don’t understand the logic behind naming scents for candles...

Sun, 24 Mar 2013 14:09:02 -0400

How Are You I'm Fine Thanks: I really don’t understand the logic behind naming scents for candles...:

gingerhaze:

I really don’t understand the logic behind naming scents for candles and bath products, like

This candle smells half like a moonlit walk and half like a wandering stream. What does a moonlit walk smell like? How is it different from a walk at 3 in the afternoon? And wandering stream?? Does…

ccindecision: Three possibilities: 1. The uploader of this...

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 15:28:15 -0400

ccindecision:

Three possibilities:

1. The uploader of this video is on the cutting edge of anti-Obama trutherism. Goodbye birth certificates, hello “Obama is protected by alien demon Secret Service agents” -gate.

2. This is satire, or a vast conspiracy to discredit people who make fun of conspiracies.

3. President Obama really has welcomed a race of alien shape-shifters into our country, in which case we welcome our alien shape-shifting overlords. Please be nice.

4. Obama is out to prove his nerd cred by hiring actual aliens, thus depriving people born here on Earth of good paying jobs.

animationtidbits: Who Framed Roger Rabbit - Jessica Rabbit...

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 22:27:57 -0400

animationtidbits:

Who Framed Roger Rabbit - Jessica Rabbit Model Sheet

popchartlab: Brilliant. disalmanac: How do we feel about...

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 20:19:04 -0500

popchartlab:

Brilliant.

disalmanac:

How do we feel about Shatner? A handy chart.

nickdouglas: CHRIS HADFIELD: An astronaut’s advice (comic by...

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:30:35 -0500

nickdouglas:

CHRIS HADFIELD: An astronaut’s advice (comic by Gavin Aung Than)

I reblog http://zenpencils.com a lot. There’s a reason

studiosaraeileen: Wonder Woman gender presentation sketches.

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:40:52 -0500

studiosaraeileen:

Wonder Woman gender presentation sketches.

The Oscars Have Always Been Boring

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 11:29:12 -0500

So the Oscars last night weren’t very good.

But then, when was the last time they were good?

No, really. When was the last time there was a really good Oscar telecast from beginning to end? Not just one good moment, a funny act or a moving acceptance speech. A good show all the way through?

Has that ever happened? I’ve certainly never seen it. And I never expect to. The Oscars, after all, is just another trade award show, and as anyone who has ever been to a trade award show (sans super stars) can tell you, they are some of the most boring things on the planet.

Unless of course you actually care who wins in each category. Then there’s tension. Then there’s drama. If the Oscars telecast spent any time at all explaining what each person on set does, and why people care about this award, then we the audience can share in that excitement.

For example, one year Pierce Brosnan and Edna Mode, the animated character from The Incredibles, gave the best costuming award. Edna referred to Lord of the Rings as “Ngila Dickson and Richard Taylor’s three part show, with the gnomes.” She was fictional, and Edna still cared more about costuming than any real person cared about any other award that year, and therefore so did we. You want people to get excited about the Oscars? Make sure that each presenter can at least name last year’s winner of the category they are presenting.

All attempts to make the Oscars “not boring”, i.e. “edgy” frat boy hosts and more song and dance numbers, can’t hide the fact that the Oscars are only interesting if you care about the film industry, and take time away from the things that actually make people care about the film industry.

Instead of rushing through the explanations and cutting off acceptance speeches, highlight the winners in each category. Show off how cool editing and cinematography can be! Let acceptance speeches run long! Let us know about the army of people it takes to make each film! You’d think an Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences would want to educate people about that!

Let the Oscars be a boring award show. Let the film industry celebrate the film industry. If you don’t want to watch that, you should never watch the Oscars, because, at its heart, that’s what the Oscars always are. But if you do love movies, and care about how they’re made, then you’ll probably be more interested in their awards if they are about the award winners, and not about some hired dancers.

wonderali: Sweetums, Muppet Show Pimp.

Sat, 23 Feb 2013 12:08:05 -0500

wonderali:

Sweetums, Muppet Show Pimp.

HEY. HEY. YOU’VE GOT SOMETHING ON YOUR FACE. THERE. NO....

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 16:04:08 -0500

HEY. HEY. YOU’VE GOT SOMETHING ON YOUR FACE. THERE. NO. THERE. NO. IT’S STILL THERE.

coolguyhat: So Lou Ferigno, aka the guy who played The Hulk...

Sun, 17 Feb 2013 13:29:27 -0500

coolguyhat:

So Lou Ferigno, aka the guy who played The Hulk until The Avenger’s movie, decided to prove he’s better than pastors.

HULK SHOW YOU HOW TO TIP!

cliffchiang: Happy Valentine’s day! Goddamn Cliff...

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 12:21:36 -0500

cliffchiang:

Happy Valentine’s day!

Goddamn Cliff Chiang!

Goddamn!

kevinclarkcomposer: betterbooktitles: Happy Valentine’s Day! I...

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 12:19:56 -0500

kevinclarkcomposer:

betterbooktitles:

Happy Valentine’s Day! I thought I’d show you what I do when I’m bored at work. Follow Community Bookstore’s Tumblr for more pretentious staff picks from The Disgruntled Bookseller + pictures of an adorably mean bookstore cat.

makes me so happy.

Portrait of the Bookseller as a Disgruntled Young Man

#24MAG takes its toll.

Sat, 02 Feb 2013 08:32:02 -0500

#24MAG takes its toll.

24Mag is Live

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 12:32:12 -0500

Right now, #24Mag (24mag.org) is 2 hours into our twenty four hour process. I am heading up the second space, a quiet apartment where people can cook, shower, sleep, and work without conversation or interruption.

As much as 24 is about the collaboration of creative professionals in the same space, there also needs to be a support area, a place where people can go to be alone. Previously, that was just another room, the kitchen, one particular bedroom. This time we are trying having that space be completely separate. A Studio to work in, and an Apartment to rest in.

A separate space. GOOD. A space a 20 minute walk away. Not so good. We’re hoping a hand cart and car services cover the gap, and we’ll see how it goes.

In the meantime, please go to 24mag.org where you can watch us actually make the magazine (and by use, I mean them, since the camera is in the studio, not here).

Also follow along on twitter, and facebook, and tumblr, because our theme is audience, and watch for ways that you too can participate.

24mag: Hey team! Ready to do this thing? I may be ready to do...

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 13:37:33 -0500

24mag:

Hey team! Ready to do this thing?

I may be ready to do this thing?

http://24mag.org